A blog about the ongoing dissolution of the "western" civilization, and how to understand and navigate it...

Friday, January 3, 2014

Bank evolution in Europe, with some focus on Portugal


Hi!
First post here!
Not that it is particularly important or inspiring, it is simply the first.

This one is related to the banking crisis that is slowly unfolding in some European countries, although disguised as well as possible (since every stakeholder has a lot to gain from trying to make things look good, instead of bad...).
Like many of the posts that will follow, it is based/inspired on something I read elsewhere.
In this case, the source is this article by John Mauldin, an author I appreciate very much.

Two points that deserve special attention on Mauldin's article are:

1) This chart, that illustrates the recent evolution of national debt owned by the banks of some key European countries:

 
This chart shows absolute values. As such, those values must be interpreted according to each countries' dimension.
The critical evolution of the Spanish and Italian cases is clear.
Portugal's evolution is also interesting. The country is being assisted by official international lenders (the "troika", that includes the IMF, the ECB, and the EU itself), because commercial lending to Portugal basically ended in 2011 (due to well justified concerns about the sustainability of the country's debt). During 2012 and 2013 Portugal was able to obtain some very limited funds in commercial syndicated debt placements. It seems clear that the source of those funds was almost purely internal...
The situation of the Portuguese banks is even funnier because most of the larger Portuguese banks are receiving support (funds that can be counted as part of their Tier 1 capital) from the Portuguese state, at the same time that they are lending growing amounts to that same state. All will be well until all goes burst. And when it happens it will be mutual assured destruction.
Will there still be (new?) official lenders of last resource to save the future national debacle? In face of much greater problems than hose of 2011 will the IMF decide to increase its lending, after the present round of financial support? Will The EU/Germany step in for a (further) rescue? Doubtful.

That leads us into:

2) This gem, found (ok, it was not really deeply hidden) and cited by Mauldin in the above linked article:

 
Carefully read, this is interesting in itself. But, to fully appreciate it, one needs contextual information about the evolution of non-performing debts in the "eurozone periphery" (a reality that the banking sector has been successful in disguising).
Here, again, Portugal seems to be a good example.
I will discuss it in future posts.

6 comments:

  1. Parece muito bom! Parabéns pelo blog!

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  2. Dark but very interesting. I look forward for the rest of the article (not the development in itself)
    Luis

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    Replies
    1. Thanks. I-m starting 2 terrible weeks in terms of work, but I hope to post something new soon.

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